"We're doomed," study finds
2020-Mar-18, Wednesday 14:17![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
dorchadas
You might have seen the study about social distancing needing to last 18 months floating around, and if not, there it is. Which led me to some pretty depressing thoughts.
So, that article seems to imply one of three possible outcomes:
Now, they obviously aren't our options forever. Maybe some retroviral treatment is effective, reducing coronavirus mortality. Maybe the virus mutates to be less lethal. But those are all hypotheticals, and even if we slow the curve so that hospitals aren't overwhelmed, COVID-19 still has a 12-15% mortality rate in the elderly, so millions will still die, just over a longer timespan. But all the measures necessary to contain the virus for any length of time will destroy the global economy, global society, and--to be honest--people won't do it. They won't stay inside all summer, they won't refrain from gathering in large groups for over a year, they won't postpone all their celebrations. They just won't. It's an impossible request.
So, let's hope for a miracle.
So, that article seems to imply one of three possible outcomes:
- One, we implement social distancing for the recommended 18 months until a vaccine is developed and deployed. The entire global social order and economy collapse. Millions die, but not of coronavirus.
- Two, we implement worldwide quarantine for a month and a half or so. This prevents the virus from spreading at the cost of all civil rights and personal freedom. Millions don't die, but democracy and free society does.
- Three, we go back mostly to business as normal after bending the curve. Most of humanity catches coronavirus and something like 90 million people die (based on current fatality rates), more than both world wars put together. We start vaccinating people when one is developed.
Now, they obviously aren't our options forever. Maybe some retroviral treatment is effective, reducing coronavirus mortality. Maybe the virus mutates to be less lethal. But those are all hypotheticals, and even if we slow the curve so that hospitals aren't overwhelmed, COVID-19 still has a 12-15% mortality rate in the elderly, so millions will still die, just over a longer timespan. But all the measures necessary to contain the virus for any length of time will destroy the global economy, global society, and--to be honest--people won't do it. They won't stay inside all summer, they won't refrain from gathering in large groups for over a year, they won't postpone all their celebrations. They just won't. It's an impossible request.
So, let's hope for a miracle.
no subject
Date: 2020-Mar-19, Thursday 00:33 (UTC)they won't refrain from gathering in large groups for over a year, they won't postpone all their celebrations
I don't know. I think a lot of them might, once they start seeing how serious this actually gets. Not all of them, obviously. But if it gets bad enough, a lot of people may continue social distancing as much as possible simply out of personal fear, even without government mandates.
Maybe I'm being overly optimistic here, or giving people too much credit for being sensible or considerate. I'd like to think most people are at least halfway decent, but obviously there is... evidence to the contrary.
And I think almost whatever happens, a lot of international relations are going to be completely screwed for a long time after this, and in particular, anti-Chinese sentiment and general racism against people of Asian descent is going to skyrocket in the US (and maybe all over the world). Which may have all sorts of other and maybe even worse consequences, long-term.
A miracle would definitely be the best option.
no subject
Date: 2020-Mar-19, Thursday 03:14 (UTC)But if it gets bad enough, a lot of people may continue social distancing as much as possible simply out of personal fear, even without government mandates.
I think if coronavirus itself was more serious you'd be right, but the majority of people either have no symptoms or just flu-like ones, so I feel like they'll reason that they'd be okay and they aren't going to put their life on hold for people they don't know. To say nothing of the people who think it's a hoax, or who refuse to do anything the government says, or whatever.
I guess I'm just more pessimistic lately.
anti-Chinese sentiment and general racism against people of Asian descent is going to skyrocket in the US (and maybe all over the world)
Oh, yeah. I'm pretty sure the days of China being a manufacturing destination are over forever, and with the escalating rhetoric between the American and Chinese governments...
no subject
Date: 2020-Mar-19, Thursday 06:52 (UTC)Yeah... I'm probably pessimistic/paranoid enough to just assume that they're already doing this, and just not telling us, or at best that it was already inevitable anyway, so the only thing the virus might do is just speed up the process. :/
they'll reason that they'd be okay and they aren't going to put their life on hold for people they don't know
That's certainly possible. I guess I tend to assume that if things in the US get to the point they're already at in Italy, where there are no ICU beds left and medical workers are all in hazmat suits and are basically living like they're in a war zone and doing triage in tents, etc., it will be hard for people to ignore that, even if they know they're probably not at risk of dying themselves.
It also seems, based on some of the cases of medical staff in Wuhan and elsewhere, like the disease can be serious or deadly even for young, healthy people if they have high levels of exposure. I think right now we're hearing about all the 85-year-old people who are dying, because those are the people who go first, but there are very likely going to be cases of people in their 30s with no underlying conditions whose immune systems just go berserk and kill them, or whatever, as there have been in other places. And I guess I also feel like most people do know and care about some number of other people who are in high-risk demographics. But maybe the question is still whether they care enough. And whether they even understand the impact of their own actions.
To say nothing of the people who think it's a hoax, or who refuse to do anything the government says, or whatever.
Yeaaaah, there's... also that.
no subject
Date: 2020-Mar-20, Friday 15:20 (UTC)I was just reading an article about people going to spring break because they were like "If I die, I die," and another about a woman saying that staying home was "giving in to the virus," as though it were something we could negotiate with. Ugh.
no subject
Date: 2020-Mar-20, Friday 15:42 (UTC)Huh. Well, sure. We don't want viruses to start getting all entitled and self-important or anything.
...I'm gradually realizing that reading news about the horrors that are happening because of the virus doesn't stress me anywhere near as much as reading news about people being idiots and/or assholes about it. This problem is, theoretically, not beyond solving, if only humans were better as a species. :|
no subject
Date: 2020-Mar-19, Thursday 22:55 (UTC)I do not feel that I am panicking. I am willing to do what I must to try to help flatten the curve. I also don't want to be blasé--I value my own health and the health of the people around me.
But I must say, in a country where a broken leg is enough to cause a person to declare bankruptcy, we sure do like to be foolhardy with our health.
no subject
Date: 2020-Mar-20, Friday 15:07 (UTC)I was just talking with
Hopefully all of this works. 🧿