"We're doomed," study finds
2020-Mar-18, Wednesday 14:17![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
dorchadas
You might have seen the study about social distancing needing to last 18 months floating around, and if not, there it is. Which led me to some pretty depressing thoughts.
So, that article seems to imply one of three possible outcomes:
Now, they obviously aren't our options forever. Maybe some retroviral treatment is effective, reducing coronavirus mortality. Maybe the virus mutates to be less lethal. But those are all hypotheticals, and even if we slow the curve so that hospitals aren't overwhelmed, COVID-19 still has a 12-15% mortality rate in the elderly, so millions will still die, just over a longer timespan. But all the measures necessary to contain the virus for any length of time will destroy the global economy, global society, and--to be honest--people won't do it. They won't stay inside all summer, they won't refrain from gathering in large groups for over a year, they won't postpone all their celebrations. They just won't. It's an impossible request.
So, let's hope for a miracle.
So, that article seems to imply one of three possible outcomes:
- One, we implement social distancing for the recommended 18 months until a vaccine is developed and deployed. The entire global social order and economy collapse. Millions die, but not of coronavirus.
- Two, we implement worldwide quarantine for a month and a half or so. This prevents the virus from spreading at the cost of all civil rights and personal freedom. Millions don't die, but democracy and free society does.
- Three, we go back mostly to business as normal after bending the curve. Most of humanity catches coronavirus and something like 90 million people die (based on current fatality rates), more than both world wars put together. We start vaccinating people when one is developed.
Now, they obviously aren't our options forever. Maybe some retroviral treatment is effective, reducing coronavirus mortality. Maybe the virus mutates to be less lethal. But those are all hypotheticals, and even if we slow the curve so that hospitals aren't overwhelmed, COVID-19 still has a 12-15% mortality rate in the elderly, so millions will still die, just over a longer timespan. But all the measures necessary to contain the virus for any length of time will destroy the global economy, global society, and--to be honest--people won't do it. They won't stay inside all summer, they won't refrain from gathering in large groups for over a year, they won't postpone all their celebrations. They just won't. It's an impossible request.
So, let's hope for a miracle.
