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The miracle of the election
2020-Nov-04, Wednesday 12:06
There were enough ballots for only one night, but they lasted for eight nights.
At this point it seems likely, though not certain, that Biden will win, and all that remains is the counting. But thanks to efforts by Republican legislatures, the counting is stretched out much longer than it needs to, because the Republican Party wanted to set up the exact results that we got--election night trended red and then the results got more and more Democratic over time. That lets them run with the idea that the election was stolen and all Democratic governance is illegitimate, which is what they believe anyway but now they have an event they can point to as evidence of their claims.
But mostly, I think this election is evidence of something I've thought for a while, which is that one of the most common political position in America is "how dare you tell me what to do!" People repeatedly voted for progressive ballot measures, like Oregon's drug legalization or Mississippi's medical marijuana or Florida's $15 minimum wage, and then voted for Republicans politicians who are against those policies. I described it elsewhere by saying that Americans want liberal policies but want conservatives to enact them, which is glib but at least partially true. There's a lot of talk about racism and fascism in Trump support, and it is a major element, but it's hard to say that Trump lost support among white men but gained it among everyone else due to racism. The left has an image as prissy schoolteachers who repeatedly punish people for exerting any independence, and it mostly has no interest in actually shedding that impression because whyareyoubooingmeimright.jpg. People's votes may be due to racism, but if so (especially if so), pointing it out is just going to make them vote for someone else.
How do we then get past that? There's basically no evidence that implicit bias training actually results in changing attitudes, so that leaves the hard work of talking to people and getting to know them, but polarization is such that when a new congressman tweets:
...the response from conservatives is mostly favorable. The right talks about grievance studies, and the politics of grievance, but of course it's projection. "u mad libs" is basically the only policy position conservatives have now.
There is one other element in this election, though, and that's the plague. Attitudes are hugely politicized, and Trump probably got a large number of votes from people who want the economy opened up and are willing to ignore everything else to achieve it. Republicans have far more single-issue voter issues than the Democrats--guns, abortion, etc.--and coronavirus lockdowns are another one.
If the schools were open, maybe Biden would have won with a more comfortable margin.
At this point it seems likely, though not certain, that Biden will win, and all that remains is the counting. But thanks to efforts by Republican legislatures, the counting is stretched out much longer than it needs to, because the Republican Party wanted to set up the exact results that we got--election night trended red and then the results got more and more Democratic over time. That lets them run with the idea that the election was stolen and all Democratic governance is illegitimate, which is what they believe anyway but now they have an event they can point to as evidence of their claims.
But mostly, I think this election is evidence of something I've thought for a while, which is that one of the most common political position in America is "how dare you tell me what to do!" People repeatedly voted for progressive ballot measures, like Oregon's drug legalization or Mississippi's medical marijuana or Florida's $15 minimum wage, and then voted for Republicans politicians who are against those policies. I described it elsewhere by saying that Americans want liberal policies but want conservatives to enact them, which is glib but at least partially true. There's a lot of talk about racism and fascism in Trump support, and it is a major element, but it's hard to say that Trump lost support among white men but gained it among everyone else due to racism. The left has an image as prissy schoolteachers who repeatedly punish people for exerting any independence, and it mostly has no interest in actually shedding that impression because whyareyoubooingmeimright.jpg. People's votes may be due to racism, but if so (especially if so), pointing it out is just going to make them vote for someone else.
How do we then get past that? There's basically no evidence that implicit bias training actually results in changing attitudes, so that leaves the hard work of talking to people and getting to know them, but polarization is such that when a new congressman tweets:
Cry more, lib.
— Madison Cawthorn (@CawthornforNC) November 4, 2020
...the response from conservatives is mostly favorable. The right talks about grievance studies, and the politics of grievance, but of course it's projection. "u mad libs" is basically the only policy position conservatives have now.
There is one other element in this election, though, and that's the plague. Attitudes are hugely politicized, and Trump probably got a large number of votes from people who want the economy opened up and are willing to ignore everything else to achieve it. Republicans have far more single-issue voter issues than the Democrats--guns, abortion, etc.--and coronavirus lockdowns are another one.
If the schools were open, maybe Biden would have won with a more comfortable margin.
